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Estimating your Process Projects presented at FSOkx BPM Forum

Description

Estimating always presents challenges. This is especially true when estimating the intangibles of process improvement efforts. This presentation will focus on how to reduce the guesswork associated with the estimation process by considering the following questions: What is it that you are estimating? How big is the thing you are estimating? What baselines are you using for your estimates? Should you be estimating top down, bottom up or somewhere in between? How do your estimates tie to your project plan? Do your estimates reflect ROI and business value?

Transcript

Estimating your Process Projects
FSOkx BPM Forum: September 17th, 2013
Matt Yeager
Manager, Advisory & Consulting
myeager@prolifics.com
Office: 646-380-2972
Anant Gupta
Senior Vice President, IBM Solutions
agupta@prolifics.com
Office: 646.201.4960
3
• Los Angeles
• San Francisco
• London
• Hamburg
• Hyderabad
• Calabasas
• New York
• Boston
• Philadelphia
• Washington DC
• Orlando
In business for over 35 years, Prolifics is a Global Technology Consulting company with 1300 employees
worldwide specializing in the expert delivery of end-to-end Solutions utilizing IBM, Microsoft and Open
Source technologies.
Who Are We?
Our Vision
To be one of the most admired global technology consulting companies, delivering competitive advantage to our
customers through value add solutions.
Our Mission
Our mission is to be a trusted technology advisor and provide superior, specialized solutions to companies seeking
high value from their technology investments.
Prolifics at a glance
FY 2012: $105M
35 years of continued growth
Over 350 customers
including over 150 of the
current Fortune 1000
companies
Over 400
technical certifications
SkillsRevenue Customers
Services across the full project lifecycle
including advisory services, architecture,
business analysis, design, development,
testing, training, support, and system
administration
End-to-End Services
from Thought to Finish
Partnerships &
Processes
Company Snapshot
4
Why are we here…
 Estimating always presents challenges
 The intangibles of a process effort can be hard
to pinpoint
 Reduce the guesswork associated with the
estimation process
5
Why are Process Projects so Hard to Estimate?
6
Intangible
Ambiguous
Invisible
Lack of Understanding
Start?
End? End?
Evolves
System
Let’s Dive In…
 What are you estimating?
 How big is the effort?
 What baselines are you using?
 Can you keep to your estimates?
 Are you achieving ROI and business value?
7
Prolifics BPM Delivery Framework
Discover
Review / Develop
Organization
Strategy
Assess People
and Culture
Define Business
Architecture
Document
Technical
Architecture
Prepare Action
Plan
Scope
Facilitate Scoping
Session
Document
Problems with
Current State
Define Process
Vision
Identify Candidate
Project(s)
Clarify
Model As-Is
Process
Document
Business Rules
Perform Problem
Analysis
Define Data & Key
Performance
Measures
Define Roles and
Responsibilities
Identify Tactical
Opportunities
Develop Business
Case for Change
Design
Model To-Be
Process
Build Gap Model
Conduct
Innovation
Workshop
Perform
Organizational
Impact Analysis
Realign Incentives
to New Process
Define Quick Wins
(Low Hanging
Fruit)
Define Business
Requirements
Identify
Technology
Opportunities
Produce
Cost/Benefit
Analysis
Implement
Develop
Transformation
Plan
Define
Implementation /
Work Plan
Implement New
Roles/ Org
Structure
Define / Update
Policies &
Procedures
Implement Manual
Process Changes
Apply Process
Automation
Implement
Business Rules
Management
Monitor and
Control
Monitor On-Going
Process
Performance
Identify
Improvement
Opportunities
Frame
your
Estimating
Do Discovery BEFORE Estimating
 Do Not rush Discovery…it is too important
 Understand your organization’s strategic vision
 Determine if your culture and resources are accepting of change
 Define and document your business architecture
 Socialize your project and gather feedback
 Analyze project risks
 Formulate an action plan
9
10
Process Scope
Diagram
Controls/ Constraints
Enablers
Outputs
Inputs Business
Process
Milestones/
Activities
Things that
govern or dictate
how a process
performs
Things that
enable a process
to be performed
Things
produced
by a
process
Things
that
initiate a
process
(Business Rules, Regulatory
Requirements, Laws, etc.)
(Work Products,
Transformed Data)
(Business Events/
Triggers, Data,
Inputs from other
Processes)
(Roles, Systems, Organizations, etc.)
Understand Process Project Types
11
Discover
Review / Develop
Organization
Strategy
Assess People
and Culture
Define Business
Architecture
Document
Technical
Architecture
Prepare Action
Plan
Scope
Facilitate Scoping
Session
Document
Problems with
Current State
Define Process
Vision
Identify Candidate
Project(s)
Clarify
Model As-Is
Process
Document
Business Rules
Perform Problem
Analysis
Define Data & Key
Performance
Measures
Define Roles and
Responsibilities
Identify Tactical
Opportunities
Develop Business
Case for Change
Design
Model To-Be
Process
Build Gap Model
Conduct
Innovation
Workshop
Perform
Organizational
Impact Analysis
Realign Incentives
to New Process
Define Quick Wins
(Low Hanging
Fruit)
Define Business
Requirements
Identify
Technology
Opportunities
Produce
Cost/Benefit
Analysis
Implement
Develop
Transformation
Plan
Define
Implementation /
Work Plan
Implement New
Roles/ Org
Structure
Define / Update
Policies &
Procedures
Implement Manual
Process Changes
Apply Process
Automation
Implement
Business Rules
Management
Monitor and
Control
Monitor On-Going
Process
Performance
Identify
Improvement
Opportunities
Prolifics BPM Delivery Framework
Estimate
Modeling &
Design Based on
Scope
Clarify What You’re Estimating
 Estimate the current-state and the
“to-be” process/sub processes
 This will serve as the blueprint for
the project
 Modeling the full end-to-end process
 Focus on the “what” not the “how”
 Capture enough information to gain
process awareness
13
Estimate ALL Framework Components
 Business Rules
 Data & Key Performance Indicators
 Changes to Roles & Responsibilities
 Time for Creativity workshops & Brainstorming new ideas for
process improvement
 Organization impact (time with Human Resources)
 Explore technology options
14
Focus Your Efforts
 Use process maps to further scope the project’s level of effort
 Conduct a gap analysis
 Identify stakeholder involvement
 Determine span of process control
 Does the process cross departments or business partners?
 Does the change impact organization structures and roles?
 Does it require new technology or changes to existing?
 Is training needed, how long will it take to develop and deliver?
15
What to Consider for your Baseline Estimate
 Do you have a basis from another successful process project?
 Have you considered the time it takes to get accurate estimates
from business partners?
 Can you demonstrate that your estimates are based on facts?
 Have you been honest with how long it takes to change the
culture, gain leadership support and identify changes in roles?
 Have you estimated in appropriate time for the following:
 Project ramp-up, closure, training, deployment and warranty
16
Common Pitfalls when Estimating
 Scope is to narrow or vague
 Additional funding is needed to continue the effort
 Focus is solely on the selection and purchase of a technology
 Does not include cross-department involvement from subject
matter experts, which is needed to capture a full end-to-end
process
 Adequate time is not spent identifying the ROI, business value or
customer needs
 Not enough time spent understanding the business rules/decision
management associated with their processes
17
How many of you consider
business rules / decision management
when estimating your projects?
How can we ensure that business decisions are managed
in a controlled environment?
Governance
How can we ensure the right decision is being made at the
right time?
Visibility
Key Challenges Addressed by Decision Management
How can we rapidly respond to evolving market demands,
competitive actions and regulatory requirements?
Collaboration
Discover
Review / Develop
Organization
Strategy
Assess People
and Culture
Define Business
Architecture
Document
Technical
Architecture
Prepare Action
Plan
Scope
Facilitate Scoping
Session
Document
Problems with
Current State
Define Process
Vision
Identify Candidate
Project(s)
Clarify
Model As-Is
Process
Document
Business Rules
Perform Problem
Analysis
Define Data & Key
Performance
Measures
Define Roles and
Responsibilities
Identify Tactical
Opportunities
Develop Business
Case for Change
Design
Model To-Be
Process
Build Gap Model
Conduct
Innovation
Workshop
Perform
Organizational
Impact Analysis
Realign Incentives
to New Process
Define Quick Wins
(Low Hanging
Fruit)
Define Business
Requirements
Identify
Technology
Opportunities
Produce
Cost/Benefit
Analysis
Implement
Develop
Transformation
Plan
Define
Implementation /
Work Plan
Implement New
Roles/ Org
Structure
Define / Update
Policies &
Procedures
Implement Manual
Process Changes
Apply Process
Automation
Implement
Business Rules
Management
Monitor and
Control
Monitor On-Going
Process
Performance
Identify
Improvement
Opportunities
Not Just Implementing
Technology
Prolifics BPM Delivery Framework
Do Not Underestimate Implementation
 Changing people’s roles and organizational culture
 Reorganizing around process-oriented business model
 Modifying policies/procedures
 Selling Process Change
 Can be It’s own phase…
 Training
 Can take significant time to prepare and deliver
 How will training be delivered?
 Are resources geographically dispersed?
21
What Type of Implementation?
 Big Bang
 Could require less time, but much greater risk
 Parallel Transition
 Running parallel processes for a time, more cost but less risk
 Pilot
 Could require more time, but lower risk
 Step Change
 Phased implementation (e.g. regions, states, etc.)
 Requires more time, but much less risk than Big Bang
22
Measure Success Against your Estimates
“When you can measure what you are speaking about and express it
in numbers you know something about it;
but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot
express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a
meager and unsatisfactory kind.”
– Lord Kelvin
23
ROI cannot be
demonstrated
without proper
measures…
Monitor KPIs and ROI Example
Total annual savings = $1.3m
Risks and Challenges of Estimating ROI
Risks
 Over estimating potential
savings
 Setting unreachable goals
 Addressing business value that
isn’t aligned with the
organization’s current vision
 Belief that true ROI is only
achieved through headcount
reduction
Challenges
 Factual estimating takes time
 All estimates will be questioned
 Ability to measure, monitor and
demonstrate ongoing savings
 Savings may be inconsistent
 Continued leadership
dedication and support is
needed
25
Ramification of Poor Estimating
 Project fails or ends before needed improvement is achieved
 Loss of customers and revenue
 Unable to meet regulatory or compliance demands
 Critical or adverse events such as..
 In health care, process failure results in patient injury or death
 In finance, poor estimating results in lack of detecting fraud
and potential loss of customer money/investments
 Lawsuit and damages paid to affected customers
 Your business is sold or closed!
26
ESTIMATING MY
POOL PROJECT
27
How I Approached Estimating
 Documented my scope – what is needed vs. what is a nice to have
 Obtained bids with detailed cost information for each item/task
 Created a baseline estimate based on scope and bids
 Consulted colleagues, friends and family members with pool
 Finalized scope and budget projection
 Obtained Executive (aka. My Wife!) approval and secured funding
28
What Return on Investment & Value Will I Get?
 Limited return on investment since a pool won’t significantly
increase my property value
 Ongoing costs will be associated with maintenance, repairs and
increased electric, gas and water bills
 Value is achieved when…
 Wife and Daughter – my “customers” are happy and relaxed!!
 The whole family is outside more (away from TV/iPads)
 Daughter is part fish and loves to swim
 Family and Friends will want to come and stay at our house
29
Visualize Your Goal!!
30

Home

Closing Comments
31
Remember, Estimating Change can be Hard!
 Only change what is needed to address the business problem
 Don’t boil the ocean
 Only model to the level of detail necessary to understand and
address the problems
 Address the most critical issues first, weakest link in the chain
• Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints
 Estimate based on the process and what is factual
 ‘Process reengineering’ should be the exception
32
Why you need Comprehensive Estimating
 Dedicated focused team
 Have Leadership support
 Time needed from other departments
 Project is phased appropriately
 Understand the technology needs
 Understand clearly what your scope is for the project
 Documented current and future state process models
 Attainable and stretch goals set for ROI and business value
33
Relax and Get Estimating!!
34
35
And visit these useful links on the Prolifics Web site:
 Case Studies: http://www.prolifics.com/case-study-technology.htm
 Webcasts: http://www.prolifics.com/webcasts.htm
 Podcasts: http://www.prolifics.com/podcasts.htm
 Service Brochures: http://www.prolifics.com/service-brochures.htm
 Technology Blog: http://expert-tech.blogspot.com
 Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/prolifics
 Prolifics TV: http://www.youtube.com/prolificstv