rules management blog posts

Stop pretending deterministic is good enough

Blog: For Practitioners by Practitioners!

This is a phrase from the latest post by Adam DeJans Jr. “We all know the world is uncertain. But what are you actually doing about it?

Most of us? Running deterministic optimization and crossing our fingers. You KNOW your forecast is wrong, but hey, at least the solver finishes in reasonable time.

The brave ones? Trying multistage stochastic optimization. Now you’re modeling uncertainty properly… and watching your solve times explode as you enumerate every possible future scenario. Good luck explaining to your boss why the model that “handles uncertainty better” takes 100x longer to run.

And let’s be real, 2026 is shaping up to be EXTRA uncertain. Trump’s back in office changing his mind on tariffs every other day. Your supply chain models? Obsolete by Tuesday. Your cost forecasts? Already wrong. The one thing you CAN count on is that whatever you planned for yesterday isn’t what you’re dealing with today.

There’s a third option nobody talks about.”
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