Contributed on May 8, 2014

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BPSim The Temporal and Control Perspectives

Transcript

BPSim Webinar
Presents
Cover 1
Business Process Simulation
Webinar:
Exploring the Temporal
& Control Perspectives
– Using Example 2 (Originating a Home Loan)
from the BPSim Implementation Guide –
Presenter: Lloyd Dugan
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BPSim Webinar
• Learning Objectives
• Process Analysis Using Simulation (Temporal & Control Perspectives)
– Simulating Business Processes Modeled in BPMN
(Overview of Simulation and BPSim)
– Sample Process Walkthrough of Temporal & Control Perspectives
(Process Simulation, Diagnosis, and Redesign Example)
– Simulation Parameters in BPMN Models
(Loan Process Model Example)
– Simulation of Loan Process Model
(Demonstration of Temporal & Control Perspectives in the As-Is Analysis)
– Simulation Diagnostics & Process Redesign
(Demonstration of Temporal & Control Perspectives in the To-Be Redesign)
• Summary
• Questions & Answers
• Simulation Tools Showcased in this Webinar
• Presenter Bio
2
Outline
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• At the end of this webinar, you will know…
– Purposes of process analysis through simulation, relating the reasons
for simulating processes to specific aspects of the model
– Key concepts of simulation with BPMN models, focusing on the
temporal perspective, work queues, and processing times
• Note: Assumes basic understanding of core BPMN concepts
– Process model element simulation parameters (structural parameters)
and process performer simulation parameters (non-structural
parameters), connecting them to the behaviors of the model
– Simulation of a process model can be used to diagnose performance
problems, and lead to remediation of performance problems
– Recognizing patterns of performance problems and typical solutions
to those patterns as surfaced through process simulation
3
Learning Objectives
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Simulating Business Processes
Modeled in BPMN
(Overview of Simulation and BPSim)
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Analyze the business
process through simulation
of its corresponding model
to answer specific questions!
Analyze the business
process through simulation
of its corresponding model to
answer specific questions!
5
Process Analysis Using
Simulation
Analyze the business process
through simulation of its
corresponding model to
answer specific questions!
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• Business process model represents an abstract approximation of an
actual business process
– For example, one done in BPMN
– But: “All Models Are Wrong, Though Some Are Useful” – George Box (famous
mathematician and statistician)
• Business process is characterized by measurable performance
characteristics, such as those in the temporal perspective
– Time it takes to execute individual constituent activities (cycle time)
– Time it takes to execute through all constituent activities (time-in-system)
– Leftover work from inability to finish within allotted work time work-in-progress (WIP)
• Simulation provides the means by which to measure performance
characteristics of the process using the model instead of the real thing!
6
Simulation of a Business
Process
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Parameterization of a Business Process Model from different
perspectives for process analysis, simulation, and optimization purposes
7
Process Simulation Perspectives
Resource Cost
Time
Property
Process
Priority
– Graphic pprepared by Denis
Gagne, Founder of Trisotech and
the Business Process Incubator
The Business Process Simulation
(BPSim) Specification:
• Supports both inputs (parametric data)
into a simulation and outputs (result set)
of a simulation
• Maps to modeling notation concepts and
semantics, including schemas, for BPMN
2.0 (from OMG) and XPDL (from WfMC)
• Is consistent with core simulation
concepts and principles
• Provides consistent simulation model
interchange among tools
Control
Today’s
Focuses
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• (1) Confirmation of the Operational Behaviors of the Model:
– (1A) Compliance With the Semantics of the Modeling Language
• Does the simulation generate correct operational behaviors with respect to the
language used to model the business process?
– (1B) Fidelity With Respect To the Modeled Business Process
• Does the simulation yield performance results similar to what is actually
experienced for the business process?
• (2) Analysis of the Operational Behaviors of the Model:
– (2A) Identify Performance Problems of the Process
• Do the simulation results lead to the identification of the underlying sources of
performance problems of the as-is process?
– (2B) Facilitate Reengineering of the Process
• Does the simulation support what-if and sensitivity analyses through the design
and re-parameterization of the to-be process?
8
Purposes of Simulation
Color-Coding of Bullets Maps To Simulation Results Shown Later
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• Structural Aspects of a Model that Relate To
Simulation
– Process model structure channels the flow of a process
instance through one or more activities/events by way of one
or more routes via control flow and assignment flow
– Combination of performance characteristics for channel
routes and executed activities/events define and constrain the
overall operational performance of the process
9
Process Models and Simulations
• Non-structural Aspects of a Model that Relate
To Simulation
– Performers (as resources) are consumed when an activity
occurs, which can be constrained based on parameters
– Execution of activities/events, and therefore collectively for
a process, have costs that can be calculated
Arrival:
Receive Work Item
Work Item
Difficulty?
Activity #1A:
Analyze
Complex Item
Complex
Activity #1B:
Analyze
Simple Item
Simple
Activity #2:
Review Item
Analysis
End:
Complete Process
Arrival:
Receive Work Item
Work Item
Difficulty?
Activity #1A:
Analyze
Complex Item
Complex
Activity #1B:
Analyze
Simple Item
Simple
Activity #2:
Review Item
Analysis
End:
Complete Process
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Sample Process Walkthrough
of Temporal & Control Perspectives
(Process Simulation, Diagnosis, and Redesign Example)
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Work Item
Timing
Activity #1
(3 mins./item)
Activity #2
(2 mins./item)
Time
(:min.)
Arrival
Work Item #
Resource A
Work Item #
Resource B
Work Item #
Resource C
Work Item #
:00 – – – –
:01 1 1 – –
:02 – 1 – –
:03 2 1 2 –
:04 – – 2 1
:05 3 3 2 1
:06 – 3 – 2
:07 4 3 4 2
11
Process Walkthrough
– Baseline Configuration
Assumptions:
• Work day starts out with empty queues
• Work item arrives every other min.
• Each work item requires the same Activity #1 time
• Each work item requires the same Activity #2 time
• Resources are unconstrained (i.e., available as needed)
Arrival:
Receive Work Item
Activity #1:
Analyze Work
Item
Activity #2:
Review Item
Analysis
End:
Complete Process
Baseline
Configuration
+
No Work Item
Duration
Variation
Observations:
• Work item avgs. 5 mins. total (sum of durations)
• 2 work items were completed in first 7 mins.
• Only 1 work item is WIP in first 7 mins.
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Work Item
Timing
Activity #1
(3 mins. simple or 5 mins. complex/item)
Activity #2
(2 mins./item)
Time
(:min.)
Arrival Work
Item #
Resource A
Work Item #
Resource B
Work Item #
Resource C
Work Item #
:00 – – – –
:01 1 1 – –
:02 – 1 – –
:03 2 1 2 –
:04 – – 2 1
:05 3 3 2 1
:06 – 3 2 –
:07 4 3 2 –
12
Process Walkthrough
– Work Item Variation
Assumptions:
• Work day starts out with empty queues
• Work item arrives every other min.
• Each work item varies in the Activity #1 time
• Each work item requires the same Activity #2 time
• Resources are unconstrained (i.e., available as needed)
Arrival:
Receive Work Item
Activity #1:
Analyze Work
Item
Activity #2:
Review Item
Analysis
End:
Complete Process
Baseline
Configuration
+
Work Item
Duration
Variation
Observations:
• Work item avgs. >5 minutes total (sum of durations)
• Only 1 work item was completed in first 7 mins.
• 2 work items are WIP in first 7 mins.
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Timing Task 1A – Complex
(3 mins./item)
Task 1B – Simple
(3 mins./item)
Task 2 (2 mins./item)
Time
(:min.)
Arrival Work
Item #
Resource A
Work Item #
Resource B
Work Item #
Resource C
Work Item #
:00 – – – –
:01 1 – 1 –
:02 – – 1 –
:03 2 2 1 –
:04 – 2 1
:05 3 2 3 1
:06 – – 3 2
:07 4 4 3 2
13
Process Walkthrough
– Triage Configuration
Arrival:
Receive Work Item
Work Item
Difficulty?
Activity #1A:
Analyze
Complex Item
Complex
Activity #1B:
Analyze
Simple Item
Simple
Activity #2:
Review Item
Analysis
End:
Complete Process
Triage
Configuration
+
No Work Item
Duration
Variation
Assumptions:
• Work day starts out with empty queues
• Work item arrives every other min.
• Each work item requires the same Activity #1A/#1B time
• Each work item requires the same Activity #2 time
• Resources are unconstrained (i.e., available as needed)
Observations:
• Work item avgs. 5 mins. total (sum of durations)
• 2 work items were completed in first 7 mins.
• Only 1 work item is WIP in first 7 mins.
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Simulation Parameters in
BPMN Models
(Loan Process Model Example)
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Simulation Parameters Match
Behaviors of BPMN Elements
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Boundary Event interrupts
execution of attached-to
activity if defined condition
is met (e.g., duration takes
more than 1 hour)
Start Event and Intermediate
Catching Event have an Inter-
trigger Timer that is the occurrence
rate (e.g., rate of arrivals)
End Events and
Intermediate Throwing
Events have no
parameters
Probability is assigned to
exclusive branching paths
that must sum to 1
Activities have
processing times only
with no constraints on
resources or implicit lag
times in execution of
instances
Loan Process Model Example
NOTE: Values used as
simulation parameters
can come from historical
data, time-and-motion
studies, and best guesses
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• Simulation parameters can incorporate uncertainty … or not
– Probabilistic values are defined by a mean (or average) and distribution that has a
standard deviation from it
– Static values are fixed for the duration of the simulation
• Simulation parameters as probabilistic values
– Expected value = mean value that is expected to occur for a random instance from
a population of instances
– Distribution = defines the probability of a particular value for an instance occurring
within a population of instances
– Standard Deviation = a measure of the variation of possible values for an instance
away from the mean
• Simulation parameters must be correctly matched with the
appropriate elements within the model
16
Simulation Parameters
and Statistics
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Common Distributions
for Activities and Events
Normal (Gaussian) Distribution: Distribution used to reflect the
“normal” variation within a population of things being counted or
measured, which is typically the default distribution to be used due
to its suitability for use with most organic and mechanical activities
Probability
Distribution
Triangular Distribution: Distribution used to reflect the variation
between minimum and maximum values with a peak (mode) value
somewhere in between, all of which are easier to determine with a
population size that is too small for use with the Normal Distribution
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Mean
(Average)
Probability
Distribution
Min Mode Max
Standard Deviations
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Simulation of Loan Process Model
(Demonstration of Temporal & Control Perspectives in the As-Is Analysis)
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Originate Home Loan Process
• Pre-condition: Beginning of a standard work week (5 business days at 8 hours per day) with no
WIP in the pipeline of the Originate Loan Process for the XYZ Bank
• Process Description (to be modeled in BPMN):
– A Loan Officer receives a completed loan application (from a borrower), and records the application
information.
– A Loan Officer then verifies provided employment information, recording the result of his/her investigation.
– The borrower’s credit score and report are requested of and received from the three credit bureaus in a
consolidated form.
– A Title Researcher searches the county title records for the property in question, and then determines whether
or not the property is correctly listed and free of liens.
– A Loan Officer assembles and reviews the case file (loan application with employment verification, credit
score and report, and title results) to approve or reject the application.
– If rejected, a Loan Officer sends a rejection notice to the borrower, and then closes out the rejected case file.
– If approved, a Loan Officer sends an approval notice to the borrower, and then forwards the case file to an
Underwriter.
– An Underwriter underwrites the loan based on the case file, returning it to the Loan Officer, but if this takes
more than an hour, then standard loan terms are assigned.
– The Loan Officer then closes out the approved case file.
• Post-condition: End of a standard work week with minimal WIP still in the pipeline
19
Simulation Use Case
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• Process Performance Goals and Measures (as
established by XYZ Bank Management):
– No problematic backlog at the end of a standard 5 business days week
(acceptable WIP only)
– QoS Targets:
• Minimum: Weighted average turn-around time for a loan (across all accepted and
rejected loans) should be no more than 2.5 hours (150 minutes)
• Stretch: No loan should take more than 3 hours (180 minutes) to process
• Reengineering Imperative Established By XYZ
Bank Management For the To-Be Redesign:
– Analyze process to identify any leverage points for achieving process
performance goals and measures
– Targeted change(s) to process to ensure process performance goals and
measures are achieved
Simulation Use Case – Goals
and Performance Measures
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• Parametric Data For Simulation (as determined by TPS Reports, Inc.):
– 30 applications arrive per day (on avg.) <for the Receive Loan Application Start Event (the process trigger)>
– 8 out of the 30 are approved (on avg.) and about a fifth of the rejections have very low credit scores <for control flow>
– Credit score receipt is within 4 to 6 minutes of request, but is usually 5 mins <for the Intermediate Catching Event>
– Average duration times for activities are listed below: <for parameterizing activities>
21
Simulation Use Case –
Parameters
Activity Name Approval Path Rejection Path
Record Loan Application 20
Verify Employment 30
Perform Title Search 60
Review Title Report 20
Review Loan Application 30
Send Rejection Letter 1 (system constant)
Close-Out Rejection 5
Send Approval Letter 1 (system constant)
Underwrite Loan With Terms 50 (max of 60)
Set With Default Terms (if applicable) 1 (system constant)
Close-Out Approval 10
TOTAL (Averages and Constants) 191 or 202 136
Totals 80
for the parallel
thread
Max is 80
for all
parallel
threads
Measured weighted
average of time-in-
system for approved
and rejected loans is
about 150 minutes
with a maximum of
well over 180 minutes
Measured incidence
of WIP is that it
occurs in modest
weekly increments
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Simulation Use Case –
Initial Model
What are the Counts for each pair
of outcomes, and is there backlog
or merely WIP in the pipeline?
What is the average and maximum
Time-in-System (weighted sum of
cycle times) for a Loan
Application?
Run the simulation to
answer these questions
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Simulation Use Case –
1st Result (Failed)
What are the Counts for each pair of
outcomes, and is there backlog or
merely WIP in the pipeline?
What is the average and maximum
Time-in-System (weighted sum of
cycle times) for a Loan Application?
Unable to answer these
questions because this
catching event was not
parameterized as needed
for its BPMN behavior,
preventing process
instances from advancing,
so fix and rerun simulation
5 minutes
(on
average)
Simulation Purpose (1A): Compliance With
the Semantics of the Modeling Language!!!
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Simulation Use Case –
2nd Result (Successful)
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What are the Counts for each pair of
outcomes, and is there backlog or
merely WIP in the pipeline?
What is the average and maximum
Time-in-System (weighted sum of
cycle times) for a Loan Application?
WIP: Time-in-System Avg. Time-in-System
Max.
132 – (93+32) = 7 149.7 mins. 223.6 mins.
Consistent With Measured Historical Data
132
Received
93
Closed
32
Closed
Simulation Purpose (1B): Fidelity With
Respect To the Modeled Business Process!!!
BPSim Webinar 25
Simulation Diagnostics & Process Redesign
(Demonstration of Temporal & Control Perspectives in the To-Be Redesign)
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• Performance Problems Surfaced Through the
Temporal Perspective
– Long time-in-system => is this an internal QoS violation or an external service
level agreement (SLA) failure?
– Large backlog/WIP => is there a cause of backlog as new work not getting
done (e.g., a bottleneck) or is it just acceptable WIP in the pipeline?
26
What Can Simulation Show?
• Structural Changes Informed Through the Temporal
Perspective
– Revise the process structure (i.e., the sequence of activities) to streamline the
flow of work <see applicable reengineering patterns>
– Change the type of execution mode for activities (e.g., the task type) to reduce
cycle times <see applicable reengineering patterns>
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Simulation Use Case –
2nd Result (Reprised)
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What are the Counts for each pair of
outcomes, and is there backlog or
merely WIP in the pipeline?
What is the average and maximum
Time-in-System (weighted sum of
cycle times) for a Loan Application?
WIP: Time-in-System Avg. Time-in-System
Max.
132 – (93+32) = 7 149.7 mins 223.6 mins
Consistent With Measured Historical Data
132
Received
93
Closed
32
Closed
Acceptable
WIP?
Simulation Purpose (2A): Identify
Performance Problems of the Process!!!
Room for
Improvement
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Diagnostic View
of Simulation Results
Process
Performance
Problem(s)
Sequence Flow Activity/Event
Cost Performer
Duration
Variability
Availability
Role/Selection
Quantity
Unit Cost
Fixed Cost
Arrivals
Work Latency
StructuralNon-structural
Simulation provides data about potential sources of measured performance
problems that relate to structural or non-structural aspects of the process model
28
Order of Work
Combination of
these factors may
be the root cause
of performance
problems!
Root Cause Analysis (Fishbone Diagram or Ishikawa Diagram)
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Data Capture
• Anti-Pattern: Performance Problem of
Split Data Capture Responsibility
– Capture of data that is input to a process is
captured throughout the process, delaying
the ability to address the data in the process
instance for purposes of routing work,
applying business rules, etc.
• Redesign Pattern: Performance Solution
of Early Data Capture Responsibility
– Capture of data is consolidated and moved
to the front of the process, enabling earlier
treatment of the data by process activities
• Potential Indicator Measures To
Examine:
– Cycle Time or Duration Time
– Time-in-System
– Backlog/WIP
Work Differentiation (Triage)
• Anti-Pattern: Performance Problem of
Undifferentiated Treatment of Work
– All work items move though the same
sequence regardless of the complexity of the
work or the amount of time work items may
require based on the work item
• Redesign Pattern: Performance Solution of
Triaged (Differentiated Treatment) of Work
– Work items are split into different threads for
different treatment by more appropriate sets
of activities and/or more appropriate
performers to streamline the process flow
• Potential Indicator Measures To
Examine:
– Cycle Time or Duration Time
– Time-in-System
– Backlog/WIP
29
Process Redesign – Using
Reengineering Patterns (Part I)
Try moving Request Credit Report and Receive Credit Report events upstream to
catch very low (unreviewable) credit scores before doing other work for the review.
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Simulation Use Case – Model
With Triage + Early Data
Capture
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What are the Counts for each pair of
outcomes, and is there backlog or
merely WIP in the pipeline?
What is the average and maximum
Time-in-System (weighted sum of
cycle times) for a Loan Application?
WIP Time-in-System Avg. Time-in-System
Max.
132 – (95+30) = 7 141.63 mins. 229.08 mins.
Main Goals Realized But Stretch Goal Still Not Achieved
132
Received
95
Closed
30
Closed
Simulation Purpose (2B): Facilitate
Reengineering of the Process (Part I)!!!
NOTE: Probability parameters changed: 4 out of 30
can be rejected on credit score alone, 18 out of
remaining 26 will be rejected while 8 will be approved
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Automation
• Anti-Pattern: Performance Problem of Activity Is
Inefficient
– Typically is a manual or user-mediated activity that is seen
as taking too much time (especially with respect to peer or
contiguous activities), or is generally routine or repetitive
in a manner that is better realized through automation
• Redesign Pattern: Performance Solution of
Automating the Activity
– Offending activity is changed to be supported with
automation (e.g., manual task changed to user task with
user screen(s)) or abstracted out by way of service
invocation (e.g., manual or user task changed to a service
task provisioned through a system or service provider)
• Potential Indicator Measures To Examine:
– Cycle Time or Duration Time
– Time-in-System
– Backlog/WIP
31
Process Redesign – Using
Reengineering Patterns (Part II)
Try automating the Perform Title Search
activity by making it a user-mediated
online search (with user screens), thus
reducing its cycle time and bringing it into
alignment with the parallel activities.
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Simulation Use Case – Model
With (Automation)
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Simulation Purpose (2B): Facilitate
Reengineering of the Process (Part II)!!!
What are the Counts for each pair of
outcomes, and is there backlog or
merely WIP in the pipeline?
What is the average and maximum
Time-in-System (weighted sum of
cycle times) for a Loan Application?
WIP Time-in-System Avg Time-in-System
Max
132 – (93+34) = 5 97.82 mins 179.24 mins
Stretch Goal Realized and Other Goals Realized or Exceeded
132
Received
93
Closed
34
Closed
BPSim Webinar
• To Summarize…
– Purposes of process simulation relate to specific reasons for
simulating business processes as part of process analysis
– Key concepts of simulation with BPMN models, focusing on the
temporal perspective, work queues, and processing times
– Process model element simulation parameters (structural parameters)
and process performer simulation parameters (non-structural
parameters) are connected to the behaviors in the model
– Simulation of a process model can be used to diagnose performance
problems and to remediate the process via a revised design
– As-is anti-patterns exist and can be addressed with redesign patterns
as processes are reengineered to address performance problems
unearthed through simulation as part of process analysis
33
Summary
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?
34
Questions & Answers
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Trisotech –
http://www.trisotech.com/en/index.php
Business Process Incubator –
https://www.businessprocessincubator.com/
Lanner –
http://www.lanner.com/
35
Simulation Tools
Showcased in this Webinar
Business
Process
Incubator
Both are Members of BPSim.org!!!
BPMN Web Modeler (with L-
SIM)
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• Chief Architect for Business
Process Management, Inc. (BPMI,
www.bpm.com); e-mail:
lloyd@bpm.com
• Senior BPMN SME/Trainer for the
DoD’s Deputy Chief Management
Office (DCMO); e-mail:
ldugan@bizmanagers.com
• Independent Contractor/Sole
Proprietor of LAB Derivations
(BPMN4SCA); e-mail:
ldugan.bpmn4sca@gmail.com
• Co-Founder of Semantic BPMN,
combining and leveraging BPMN
and Semantic Technologies; e-mail:
ldugan.bpmn4sca@gmail.com
• Senior BPMN SME/Chief
Architect for the Process
Modeling Design Center (PMDC)
of the VA’s Office of IT (OIT)
• Member of the Workflow
Management Coalition (WfMC,
www.wfmc.org); co-author
BPMN 2.0 Handbook
• Member of the WfMC’s Business
Process Simulation Working
Group (BPSim, www.bpsim.org)
• Member of the Object
Management Group (OMG)
BPMN Model Interchange
Working Group (MIWG)
• OMG-Certified Expert in
Business Process Management
(BPM) (OCEB) – Fundamental
Presenter Bio: Lloyd Dugan
You Can
Find Me On
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